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The USA Intends To Lessen India’s Dependency On Russia.

The United States and Russia have long been at odds, and this has had a direct impact on countries that have links with both of them. India has always been a friend of Russia and has been working hard to strengthen its ties with the United States. The world was shocked recently by Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine in the shape of a conflict. The long-running disputes between the United States and Russia were aggravated. Following multiple sanctions on Russia, the international community rallied around Ukraine. 

What happened when Russia invaded Ukraine?

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union had increased sanctions against the country in an effort to isolate it. These were the most recent policies, which are among the most draconian in contemporary history.

Joe Biden, the US president, imposed sanctions on four Russian banks, including V.E.B., as well as corrupt billionaires linked to Putin, in a speech on February 22. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared that all major Russian banks’ assets were frozen and were barred from the UK financial system, as well as it followed by a suspension of several export licences to Russia. It also froze the assets of over 100 other persons and businesses and imposed a deposit restriction for Russian residents in UK bank accounts. Major Russian banks are now excluded from SWIFT, but there will still be restricted access to ensure the ability to pay for gas supplies. Furthermore, the West declared that sanctions to be imposed on the Russian Central Bank, which owns $630 billion in foreign reserves, to prevent it from selling assets in order to mitigate the impact of sanctions. 

The United States implemented export controls, a unique sanction which aimed at limiting Russian access to high-tech components, including hardware and software, manufactured with any parts or intellectual property from the United States. Any individual or firm wishing to export technology, semiconductors, encryption software, lasers, or sensors to Russia had to apply for a licence, which was automatically refused. Sanctions against the individual or firm were employed as part of the enforcement mechanism, with the shipbuilding, aircraft, and defence industries being targeted.

India’s Support for Russia in the UN assembly:

The Russian-Indian relationship has traditionally been cordial. The leaders have terrific chemistry, and residents are friendly to one another. Ordinary Russians consider India as a trustworthy ally with whom their nation enjoys a peaceful relationship. 

The Soviet Union had used its veto multiple times to defend India against Western resolutions on Kashmir, India’s invasion of Goa, and the 1971 war with Pakistan that resulted in Bangladesh’s formation. India, on the other hand, voted no on resolutions denouncing the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan a decade later. It voted against denouncing Russian operations in Chechnya and Abkhazia in the twenty-first century. Behind this is India’s long-standing opposition to Western imperialism – albeit, granted, it should also oppose Russian imperialism to be consistent. India’s decision not to speak at the UN further highlights the fact that Western involvement with India reflects a shift in Western perceptions of India rather than any fundamental transformation within India. During the Cold War, India was widely seen as a nation of spiritualism, yoga, poverty, and curry by Western eyes. Because of its non-alignment, it became reliant on the Soviet Union for armament acquisitions, which continues to this day. 

In recent years, India’s foreign policy has proved that, for the most part, you can have your cake and eat it too by keeping excellent ties with countries that are antagonistic to each other. It has been given a pass when it has interacted with countries with whom the West disagrees, such as Iran. While India’s continuing acquisition of a Russian missile defence system has prompted US sanctions. 

The USA claims to provide aid for India to lessen the country’s dependency on the trade with Russia, more promptly its reliance on weaponry and defence deals with Russia. The two countries, USA and India have been in process of strengthening their relations for the past decade. As part of the Framework on Defence Technology, India and the US have finalised an agreement to create an air-launched unmanned aerial vehicle. India and the United States have committed to increasing defence technology collaboration by pursuing thorough planning and making demonstrable progress on a variety of programmes, in keeping with their fast increasing strategic partnerships. MH-60Rs, P-8s, C-130Js, C-17s, AH[1]64s, CH-47s, and M777 howitzers were among the MH-60Rs, P-8s, C-130Js, C-17s, AH[1]64s, CH-47s, and M777 howitzers that India purchased from the US throughout the years. India may buy further US systems in the future, such as F-21s (former F-16s), F/A-18s, additional P-8s, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (UAVs).

India’s primary concern is internal development. Before India to play the sort of global role that many in the West envision, it will need years of steady economic growth. While its economy is improving, the epidemic had a toll. Based on its own thoughts and reasons, it has built a framework for the country’s future prosperity and foreign policy. With the help of the US, India may be able to get acknowledgement and support for its “great power identity.” There is little question that diplomacy with the United States has always been a priority for India’s foreign policy, and the two nations’ defense ties provide a firm basis for their relationship. According to India, the United States is more than simply the superpower with the most global reach, the most formidable military, and the most advanced economy and technology. It could also help India in areas such as investment, economics and trade, science and technology, military, and diplomacy.

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The Power Struggle: Parallels of an Arm Race

The raging war impetus has got people at the edge of their seats looking at the world giving into the glory of violence. Frequent tension amongst countries over disputes that doesn’t weigh into the collateral damage. Witnessing nations build narratives on who saves who, whilst they speciously try conning one another.

The India-China standoff, the Afghanistan crisis and now the Russian-Ukraine War, have had countries building their military strengths. A high capital expenditure and revenue expenditure being incurred by countries into strong-arming one another, displaying their military strength, deftly gatekeeping their enemies. Studies suggest there is a constant rise in the defence equipment expenditure since the 2000s – the United States, China, India, Russia, and the United Kingdom were the top five spenders in 2020, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of global military spending.  There is a seething increase in defence sourcing. The Indian government recently released its budget, which allocated almost 70% of the defence capital procurement budget to the domestic industry for the years 2022-2023. In addition, private players would be encouraged to develop and improve military platforms to help the Aatmanirbharta campaign and lessen the country’s reliance on imports. 

The rising demand for defence equipment has led to an influx of demand for equipment such as riot control equipment, and body armours. The urgency to protect oneself against the advancing technology and defence sourcing has stirred up the geopolitical front. Countries strategically forming alliances, to cut down the cost of procurement and production has helped them make an evident stand, which has further accelerated the pace of this arms race. India recently signed a $375 million contract with the Philippines for the BrahMos shore-based anti-ship missile system, marking the country`s first big defence system export transaction. The supersonic missile with a range of 290 kilometres was developed in collaboration with Russia and is manufactured in India. While Japan and the United States appear to have strengthened their defence relations with two significant defence treaties. The agreement will pave the way for the two countries to collaborate on advanced defence research and development, including a defence system against destructive supersonic missiles. The agreement establishes a new mechanism for the two countries to share the costs of the US military deployment in Japan.

Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan. The Taliban has amassed a considerable amount of weapons that were abandoned on their soil by US forces. The Taliban was rumoured to be providing Pakistan with a large amount of American weaponry taken from the Afghan Army. These hush-hush deals have closely impacted the growth of defence equipment in the South Asian continent. Surrounding countries fear a rise in terrorism. The Indian home ministry suspects a high chance of these weapons being used for violence in Pakistan and neighbouring states suggesting an unjust turmoil against the deeply ingrained communal clashes in the territory. Apart from the unsought threats, India has found itself in a showcase of gallantry against China. India seems to have been building and strengthening their military while China setting up bases in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The Chinese debt-trap strategy has played a vital role in giving way to these military advancements in the debt-ridden countries. Concerns have been raised about China’s loans to Sri Lanka, with fears that the government would be unable to repay them, and that it will use them to undermine India and the United States supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region.   

The Russians invading Ukraine makes people wonder if the world will experience another world war. If I were to give my opinion, the war was inevitable, and so is the arms race that follows. The USA has officially sanctioned $350 Million for Ukraine’s aid for weaponry. Following a wave of the US and other western sanctions against Russian banks and billionaires, intended at punishing Putin and his inner circle for the invasion of Ukraine and hurting the Russian economy, the new help comes as a welcome relief. 

Deviating from the terms of a treaty is an act of war, bringing the treaty to stand null and void. It raises questions, manoeuvring the greys of the circumstances – is humanity collateral damage? Is powering through ranks in terms of strength important to have caused a stir in peace that a treaty held secured? Humanity often gets side-lined in chaos stirred by the wrath that war brings along. 

While on the sidelines, another contest is brewing. China has long claimed Taiwan as its own, intimidates it with its armed forces, and maintains the right to attack it. The recent decision by the US President to send a delegation to Taiwan has given additional validity to fears that China may take action against Taiwan. China’s military, known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is undergoing enormous reforms, and the government is spending more money on defence than it has in the past, bolstering China’s influence in international issues such as the South China Sea. A domino effect has been set in motion for us to see, who’ll come on top. 

Never did we know power has such a hold over our consciousness. Not being content with what one possesses has led to this psychological concept of being on top. The power players lay out strategic plans, to aggravate conditions just to benefit and not think of how the preceding consequences will haunt what is left of humanity. Will the arms race come to an end, or we shall remain unthought for as collateral damage?

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Countries increasing their defense expenditure, stalwarting their dominance in the geopolitical scenario.

All revenue and capital expenditure on the armed forces, including peacekeeping forces of defence ministries and other government agencies engaged in defence projects, and paramilitary forces when judged to be trained, equipped, and ready for military operations, is referred to as defence expenditure. It typically reflects a country’s perception of the possibility of threats against it, as well as the level of aggressiveness it desires to use. It also provides an estimate of how much funding should be allocated for the future year. A budget’s size also reflects an organization’s capacity to support military actions. The size of that entity’s economy, other financial pressures on that entity, and the government’s or people’s willingness to pay such military activities are among the factors.

  • Capital expenditure refers to the money spent by the government on the development of machinery, equipment, buildings, health facilities, education, and other similar projects. It also includes the price of acquiring long-term assets like land and defence equipment, as well as government investments that will generate future revenues or dividends. These expenses result in the creation of assets, which allow the economy to produce income by expanding and improving production facilities and improving operational efficiency. It also improves labour participation, examines the economy, and boosts the economy’s future ability to create more.
  • Revenue expenditure refers to the portion of government spending that does not result in the creation of assets; such expenditures are spent to fulfil the government’s running needs. Salaries, salaries, pensions, subsidies, and interest are all examples of revenue expenditures. 

According to new figures released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total worldwide military expenditure grew to $1981 billion in 2020, up 2.6 per cent in real terms from 2019. (SIPRI). The United States, China, India, Russia, and the United Kingdom were the top five spenders in 2020, accounting for 62 per cent of worldwide military spending. 

India’s budget allocation has continually increased over time. Between 2011-12 and 2020-21, defense spending climbed by 127 per cent. The distribution of this allocation between revenue and capital spending, on the other hand, is skewed, with revenue expenditure expanding faster than capital expenditure. The key driver of greater revenue expenditure growth is increased spending on defense pensions. To achieve India’s new set aim, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat,’ the country’s drive toward an enduring indigenous defense manufacturing industry, as well as to build a strong upholding for the new system, more revenue spending will be required. India is also one of the world’s largest importers of military equipment. The nation has aimed to bolster the expenditure by increasing private sector involvement in defense production and research and development. Manufacturing still is moving slowly, but research and development is gaining traction. India’s total defense budget has increased at a rate of 9% per year over the last 10 years. 

Between 2011-12 and 2018-19, defence revenue spending increased by 140 per cent, while capital expenditure increased by 101 per cent. During the same time period, the percentage of the total defence budget spent on pensions increased from 18 per cent to 26 per cent.

Furthermore, China’s, regional expenditure growth slowed in 2020 as countries like Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia lowered their defence budgets in order to finance emergency relief efforts in the aftermath of the outbreak. The majority of the time, expected growth was slashed rather than actual cutbacks to the previous year’s budget. Asia’s defence expenditure growth slowed to 4.3 per cent in 2020, down from 4.6 per cent in 2019, as a result of the slowdown in China and the rest of the region. Despite this, the region’s share of global defence spending is expected to rise to 25.0 per cent in 2020, from 17.8 per cent in 2010 and 23.2 per cent in 2015. Despite increased investment in Europe, this is expected to remain relatively flat in 2021. 

While in real terms, total European defence spending had increased by 2.0 per cent in 2020. This was a relatively smaller increase than the 4.1 per cent increase witnessed in 2019, and Europe’s proportion of global defence spending declined somewhat in 2020, from 17.8% to 17.5 per cent. However, over the previous years, average spending across European NATO members has gradually climbed as a percentage of GDP, rising from 1.25 per cent in 2014 to 1.52 per cent in 2019 and rising further to 1.64 per cent in 2020. This is still well below the NATO recommendation that its members aim to spend 2% of GDP on defence, despite the significant 7.0% average economic contraction expected in 2020. When it comes to spending on defence equipment, NATO’s European members maintained the higher investment share of defence spending that they achieved in 2019, allocating 23% on average in 2020, beyond the NATO-recommended level of 20%.

The defence expenditures in the Middle East and North Africa have declined, falling to US$150 billion (excluding security expenditure), while the percentage of global defence spending fell to 8.9%, down from 10.5 per cent in 2017. Despite dedicating by far the highest share of economic production to defence, at 5.2 per cent of GDP, compared to the world average of 2.08 per cent, the area continues to struggle. Other oil-dependent economies began to feel the pinch as well. Following a significant 3.8 per cent real rise in the core ‘national defence’ budget in 2020, Russia was only able to execute a minuscule 1.4 per cent increase in 2021, resulting in a 3.6 per cent real reduction. Total Russian military spending (which includes pensions, military housing, and health and social assistance) is expected to drop from over 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2020 to under 3.8 percent in 2023.

Conclusion:

Peace is important to maintain fruitful trade relations in a given region. However, this peace can only be achieved if military spending is done. Military spending builds military might. This power acts as a deterrent for aggressors. In the absence of military spending, opponents may view the nation as a soft target. Hence, even though local defense spending may be more expensive, it creates more value in the form of more robust national security and fewer disruptions to trade and commerce. If the defense system of a country is fully integrated, there are economic benefits to it. Defense expenditure is, without a doubt, an unambiguous demonstration of power, as current patterns of growing defense spending shows.

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Bracing to the geopolitical complexities, will India-Russia hold up their ties?

Russian-Indian ties have always been amicable. The leaders’ chemistry is great, and citizens feel cordial toward one another. Ordinary Russians regard India as a dependable friend with whom their own country has a trouble-free relationship. For their part, most Indians see Russia as a trusted ally who has never harmed India’s strategic interests in its seventy-five years of independence.

During the Soviet era, India and Russia had decades of strong ties at the highest levels. The morality of India and the Soviet Union were not imposed on one another. When the Soviet Union suppressed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956 and invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, India, which was eager to speak out the flaws and injustices of Western imperialism, kept quiet. The Soviet Union, on the other hand, more than made up for India’s relative calm. It backed India in the dispute over Kashmir, which India and Pakistan have fought over since 1947. Russian economic and military help to India was matched by political backing for India at the United Nations Security Council on the Kashmir problem, when Pakistan, backed by the US and the UK, advocated acting to resolve the conflict.  Despite their friendship, Russia attempted to constrain Mao Zedong and his colleagues during the Sino-Indian conflict of 1962. Following this disaster, Russia increased its weaponry and technical aid to India. However, as the newly constituted Russian Federation strove to reestablish its foreign policy, the turbulence of the first post-Soviet years echoed across the Indo-Russian relationship as well. 

The Boris Yeltsin government had a pro-Western foreign policy stance in the years after the demise of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, India was approaching the point when it needed to liberalise its economy and seek to the West for trade and investment. While a result, both countries were consumed with internal concerns as they transitioned to a new international order. 

The two nations signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1993, and a year later, a Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement. Following a brief time from 1990 to 1993, India became a prominent importer of Russian weaponry, resulting in a steep drop in the amount of arms shipments. Russia’s defence exports to India and China then accounted for 41% of the country’s overall earnings. It was crucial for the survival of Russia’s armaments sector, which suffered as a result of lower orders from its own military following the collapse of the Soviet Union. India and Russia signed $650 million worth of weapons deals in 1992. Since then, the relationship has grown into cooperative research, design, development, and manufacture of state-of-the-art military systems from a strictly buyer-seller partnership. Both countries are presently active in the development of indigenous tanks and fighter planes, as well as the modernization of existing defence equipment.

In 2017, within the yearly INDRA framework, the first-ever TriServices exercise was undertaken, and India became a full member of the SCO, resulting in positive improvements in the alliance. INDRA was once a single-service exercise, but that had changed into all three services — army, navy, and air force — are participating. This development was triggered by the cancellation of the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft and India’s departure from the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft programme, which began in 2007. India chose to terminate the latter project after 11 years of stagnation on issues such as cost-sharing and technology. 

The 21st India-Russia annual summit is significant, especially with the arrival in India of the long-range S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system. Putin’s visit drew a considerable interest; it was his second trip overseas since the COVID-19 outbreak began, following a conference with US President Joe Biden in Geneva in June. The importance of the bilateral relationship as a special and privileged strategic partnership has been emphasised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The conference resulted in the signing of a 10-year defence technological cooperation pact, as well as a $600 million deal for the Indo-Russian joint venture to produce over 600,000 AK-203 Kalashnikov rifles in India. In addition, both nations have set a lofty target of increasing bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2025. The conference resulted in the signing of 28 agreements in total. 

Notwithstanding deepening of the relations with the U.S. over the last two decades, India still appears to lack trust in its strategic relations with the States. The country also has apprehensions about Russia’s close defense and strategic proximity with China. Against this backdrop, India is likely to engage both powers simultaneously to counterbalance China while retaining its strategic autonomy. The underlying notions of that of the Quad’s strategic footprint will also expand, especially as China’s tendrils reach throughout the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, the more active China becomes in its border conflict with India, the more likely India is to rely on the Quad. As a result, Russia will need to be more attentive to India’s worries about China’s territorial ambitions. India faces a difficult task in striking the correct balance between Russia and the Quad. This moreover indicates that without entering into close alignment with either the U.S. or Russia, India would engage both as per its security and strategic requirements. In the long term, India appears to have its own ambition of becoming a big power; thus aligning with either the U.S. or Russia may hamper its goals.

Neither India nor Russia, for that matter, wish to be China’s or the US’s vassal state. And one way they may endeavour to avert that conclusion is to remind China, the US, and the rest of the globe that they can rely on each other for support. Following recent tensions with China, India may wish to increase its reliance on the United States. But, if history repeats itself and the present is any clue, it will maintain its connections with Russia.

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